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2 edition of Simulation models of the epidemiological consequences of HIV infection and Aids found in the catalog.

Simulation models of the epidemiological consequences of HIV infection and Aids

Carole A. Roberts

Simulation models of the epidemiological consequences of HIV infection and Aids

by Carole A. Roberts

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Published by University of Salford Department of Business and Management Studies in Salford .
Written in English


Edition Notes

StatementCarole A. Roberts and Brian C. Dangerfield.
SeriesWorking papers / University of Salford Department of Business and Management Studies -- 8901
ContributionsDangerfield, B. C.
ID Numbers
Open LibraryOL13840572M

Overview. Our agent-based simulation model of the HIV epidemic among MSM in Baltimore City is structured as a collection of modules that govern population demographics, sexual partnerships, the epidemiological aspects of disease with regard to HIV natural history, cascade of care and transmission. HIV model overview The Epidemiological MODeling software (EMOD), HIV model, is an agent-based stochastic simulator of sexual and vertical HIV transmission. It is used to simulate HIV conditions for national-level epidemics in order to evaluate the cost and .

Despite the devastating toll of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) on morbidity and mortality, the changing epidemiologic landscape has been largely due to the successful introduction and . HIV is a spherical retrovirus with a typical diameter between and nm–about 60 times smaller than a red blood cell. A viral envelope, or lipid membrane, encloses the ed in this lipid membrane are 72 envelope proteins, glycoproteins, which spike through the surface proteins, gp and gp41, are responsible for viral attachment and entry to host cells.

BACKGROUND ON THE EPIDEMIOLOGY AND MODELING OF HIV/AIDS. HIV Transmission Mechanisms 1 Biological and Clinical Aspects of HIV Infection 2 HIV and AIDS in the United States 3 HIV and AIDS in the World 12 Three Approaches to Modeling HIV/AIDS 16 Purposes and Limitations of Epidemiological Modeling 19 Expectations of. Epidemiology of HIV Infection through Diagnoses of HIV Infection among Adults and Adolescents, by Sex –—United States and 6 Dependent Areas. Rates of Diagnosed HIV Infection Classified as Stage 3 (AIDS) —United States and 6 .


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Simulation models of the epidemiological consequences of HIV infection and Aids by Carole A. Roberts Download PDF EPUB FB2

The model's structure and parameters are also fully described, together with sensitivity tests on the crucial incubation time distribution. Modelling the Epidemiological Consequences of HIV Infection and AIDS: A Contribution from Operational Research | SpringerLinkCited by: A more flexible epidemiological model that accommodates changing infection risk over time can provide better estimates and short-term projections of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence and mortality.

In this study, we grouped the population into susceptible, infected and AIDS men and women with sexual contact as the major route for HIV transmission. Assuming a strong sexual network between the groups and with the AIDS group unable to contribute to infection, we formulated mathematical models for the heterosexual transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS in : Akpa Om, Oyejola Ba.

RESULT #1: A macro-epidemiologic model of HIV transmission. An epidemiologic model, which considers sexual, injecting drug, and perinatal modes of HIV transmission in a population of humans who are classified according to gender, age, sexual preference and injecting-drug use status has been developed.

The model is based on classical mass action by: 5. Substantial progress has been made in using models to estimate the size of the pediatric and adolescent HIV epidemic, to inform the development of guidelines for children and adolescents affected by HIV, and to support targeted implementation of policy recommendations to maximize impact.

Ongoing wor. epidemiological consequences of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and how some of them could be modified to suit the situations in other countries. We also discuss the limitations and the place of such models.

Korenromp, EL, et al. Determinants of the impact of sexually transmitted infection treatment on prevention of HIV infection: a synthesis of evidence from.

A novel HIV/AIDS epidemic model in which we incorporate a new compartment, that is, treatment compartment T, is global dynamics of our model are determined by the basic reproduction number R the basic reproduction number R 0 is less than unity, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

When the basic reproduction number R 0 is greater than. Aggarwala analyzed an HIV/AIDS model with a high risk and low risk population and concluded that in Canada, people at high risk are more likely to contact the disease than those who are at low risk.

Srinivasa Rao presented a theoretical framework for transmission of HIV/AIDS epidemic in India. Evaluating HMO policies with a computer simulation model. Roberts, C, Dangerfield, B. Modelling the epidemiological consequences of HIV infection and AIDS: a contribution from operational research Fang, Y, Roberts, C.

Model based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: the consequences of highly active antiretroviral. In another survey of risk factors for HIV infection among female injection drug users in methadone treatment (Schoenbaum et al., ), the number of male sexual partners who used drugs was strongly associated with HIV infection and was the only risk factor associated with acquisition of HIV for those women who had not used drugs since Author: Bleach Distribution Programs, Jacques Normand, David Vlahov, Lincoln E.

Moses. Further, the system for implementing the model is a very flexible one and modifications to the current structure are easy. For example, it is quite likely that the set of states Simulation models for HIV and AIDS 87 that defines the natural history of HIV infection will be.

Tuberculosis (TB) programs must invest in a variety of TB specific activities in order to reach ambitious global targets. Uncertainty exists surrounding the potential impact of each of these activities. The objective of our study was to model different interventions and quantify their impact on epidemiologic outcomes and costs from the health system perspective.

With the increasingly high prevalence of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, the devastating nature of HIV disease, and the possibility of heterosexual and perinatal transmission, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) seems to have the potential, especially in less developed countries, for major demographic and social effects.

Questions addressed by these models mainly concentrate on TB control strategies, optimal vaccination policies, approaches toward the elimination of TB in the U.S.A., TB co-infection with HIV/AIDS.

RESULTS: In simulations of the initial year period of the HIV epidemic (), over 90% of HIV infections were attributed to STD. Even given conservative assumptions about the prevalence of STD and about their enhancing effects on HIV transmission, STD played a critical role in the rapid and extensive spread of HIV infection.

Our analysis suggests that 1) when HIV first enters a human population, and for many subsequent years, the epidemic is driven by early transmissions, possibly occurring before donors have seroconverted to HIV-positive status; 2) new HIV infections in a subpopulation (risk group) may decline or level off due to the saturation of the susceptible hosts rather than to evolution of the virus or to the efficacy of.

HIV/AIDS, or Human Immunodeficiency Virus, is considered by some authors a global pandemic. However, the WHO currently uses the term 'global epidemic' to describe HIV. As ofapproximately million people are infected with HIV globally.

There were aboutdeaths from AIDS in The Global Burden of Disease Study, in a report published in The Lancet, estimated that. Three Basic Epidemiological Models 2. Why Do Epidemiologic Modeling. Even though vaccines are available for many infectious diseases, these diseases still cause suffering and mortality in the world, especially in developing countries.

In developed countries chronic diseases such as cancer and heart disease have received. HIV/AIDS has emerged as one of the leading challenges for global public health.

Particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where the overwhelming majority of HIV and AIDS cases appear, the epidemic continues to take a massive human toll.

An understanding of the magnitude and trajectory of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, as well as. The possibility of an AIDS free generation cannot be realized unless we are able to prevent HIV infection in young women.

This review will focus on the epidemiology of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa, key drivers of the continued high incidence, mortality rates and priorities for altering current epidemic trajectory in the region.A SIR Epidemic Model for HIV/AIDS Infection.

and the vicious circle formed by positive feedback between these two effects. The models predict that there is a correlation between higher levels.HIV Infection (Including AIDS) Of the estimated million people in the United States living with HIV infection, approximately 34% have progressed to AIDS, 42% are classified as having HIV only (not AIDS), and 24% remain undiagnosed and therefore may be at any stage along the spectrum of the disease.